Keytothepark
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 78% | -0.13 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |