Rarified
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 06/06/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |