5
I Got Murphed
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 88
Woodbine · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |