3
Luz De La Luna
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 88
Woodbine · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |