4
Minimum Forty
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |