Elgin Park
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 14/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |