7
Closing Appeal
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |