Party Hotline

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 65

Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

12%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength52%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.4

Today:

Class gap: +1.1

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	Woodbine	?	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2026-07-04	Woodbine	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-06-13	Woodbine	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-06-05	Woodbine	?	11th	10th	+1	1.0
2025-10-18	Woodbine	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/10/2025	9th	20/1	0%	11%	+0.11
05/06/2026	11th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
13/06/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	67%	+0.67
04/07/2026	4th	9/1	53%	63%	+0.10
22/08/2026	1st	6/5	94%	100%	+0.06