IvyArcIvyArc
4

Fortunate

2yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 63

Yarmouth · Moss And Co Hospitality Nursery · 1m 3y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Came good upped to 7f for the first time in a thin Lingfield maiden (all-weather) last month and ran to a similar level when fifth of 10 in nursery (10/1) at Leicester (7f, good) 9 days ago. Can give another good account, though others hold stronger win claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 06/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f21y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS6/0444 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 5f10y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 122 · HIGHER CLASS20/0544 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 5f Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS7/0636 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f GF 130 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 57 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 57 par25/075OR 574 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 57 · 7f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 63 · 7f GS 133 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 63 par8/096OR 63projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester65th5th0
2026-08-04Lingfield41st-1th+2
2026-07-25Lingfield53rd2nd+1
2026-07-08Catterick69th9th0
2026-06-07Goodwood35th1st+3
2026-05-30Chester44th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0430/0525/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20266th10/147%29%-0.19
17/04/202613th11/142%0%-0.42
20/05/202610th80/10%0%0.00
30/05/20264th150/10%73%+0.73
07/06/20265th16/116%0%-0.16
08/07/20269th18/15%0%-0.05
25/07/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
04/08/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
08/09/20265th10/147%56%+0.08