10
Serenity Bay
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 52
Yarmouth · Moss And Co Hospitality Nursery · 1m 3y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength90%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Brighton | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 2 | 11th | 6th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +25.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 21/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |