IvyArcIvyArc
6

Cracking Idea

2yo Colt · 9-4

Yarmouth · Infobond EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 1f 21y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved from his debut despite finding 7f on the short side when 2½ lengths third (fourth subsequent winner) in course maiden last month. Entitled to progress for this step up in distance and should be thereabouts with Billy Loughnane returning.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f2y Std 13313/0742 @ Yarmouth 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f3y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS2/082projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02Yarmouth23rd1st+2
2026-07-13Lingfield45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/072/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +25.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20265th25/10%50%+0.50
02/08/20263rd22/10%75%+0.75