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2

Bill The Bull

2yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 83

Yarmouth · Dan Hague, Rails Bookmaker Nursery · 6f 3y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a Bath maiden in June but well held since in the Super Sprint and at listed/Group level. Goes back up in trip for nursery debut but has a little bit to prove at present, for all this rates as a much simpler assignment,

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength95%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS28/0324 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f21y Std 13318/0541 @ Sandown 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f10y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0512 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f160y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/0621 @ Sandown 03/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 89 · 5f10y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 89 par3/071OR 892 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 24 · OR 88 · 5f34y GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 88 par18/072OR 881 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 86 par29/071OR 86projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Goodwood19th5th+3
2026-07-18Newbury212th10th+2
2026-07-03Sandown18th4th+3
2026-06-05Bath21st-1th+2
2026-05-28Sandown14th0th+3
2026-05-18Wolverhampton43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/035/0629/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength54%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20264th8/158%79%+0.21
18/05/20263rd5/174%67%-0.07
28/05/20264th50/10%57%+0.57
05/06/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
03/07/20268th4/179%0%-0.79
18/07/202612th25/10%52%+0.52
29/07/20269th125/10%20%+0.20