IvyArcIvyArc
7

Conciliate

2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 78

Yarmouth · Dan Hague, Rails Bookmaker Nursery · 6f 3y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Didn't need to improve on the level displayed when third at York in June to get off the mark at Ayr the following month. Displayed a good attitude that day but seemed out of his depth in a big-field sales race at Newmarket 4 weeks ago and might need to progress on nursery bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Yarmouth 20/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f3y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS20/0523 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS13/0634 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 6f Gd 1335/0742 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 78 · 6f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 78 par22/082OR 78projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket215th13th+2
2026-07-05Ayr41st1st0
2026-06-13York33rd2nd+1
2026-05-20Yarmouth27th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0513/065/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20267th16/116%14%-0.02
13/06/20263rd50/10%67%+0.67
05/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
22/08/202615th80/10%18%+0.18