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3

Dubai Charm

2yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 82

Yarmouth · Dan Hague, Rails Bookmaker Nursery · 6f 3y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well beaten in the Albany before getting off the mark on nursery debut here (5f). Still in good form when third in a stronger event over same C&D latest and probably biting off more than she could chew back up in listed company last time. Respected back at this level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 12826/0444 @ Yarmouth 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f3y GS 12813/0541 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 20th of 25 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/0615 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 5f42y GF 135 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 75 par8/075OR 754 @ Yarmouth 05/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 82 · 5f42y GF 135 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 82 par5/084OR 821 @ Newbury 14/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 82 · 5f34y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 82 par14/081OR 82projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Newbury110th6th+3
2026-08-05Yarmouth43rd3rd0
2026-07-08Yarmouth51st2nd−1
2026-06-19Royal Ascot120th16th+3
2026-05-13Yarmouth43rd3rd0
2026-04-26Nottingham42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0413/0519/068/075/0814/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -10.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
13/05/20263rd7/491%71%-0.19
19/06/202620th125/10%21%+0.21
08/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
05/08/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
14/08/202610th66/10%25%+0.25