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4

Mirzimaan

2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 81

Yarmouth · Dan Hague, Rails Bookmaker Nursery · 6f 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved a different proposition than on debut when successful in a big-field Newbury novice (6f) and looked unlucky not to follow up in muddling race at Newcastle (6f). Shaped as if amiss when trailing home last of 18 in a nursery at York's Ebor Festival 4 weeks ago, though, so has to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 6f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS15/0522 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR - · 6f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/0724 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 80 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 80 par25/074OR 802 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR 82 · 7f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 82 par20/082OR 82projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20York218th16th+2
2026-07-25Newcastle42nd2nd0
2026-07-09Newbury21st-1th+2
2026-05-15Newmarket213th11th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/059/0725/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -20.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/202613th16/116%0%-0.16
09/07/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
25/07/20262nd7/491%92%+0.02
20/08/202618th9/153%0%-0.53