1
Soldier Of The Sea
2yo Colt · 9-10 · OR 86
Yarmouth · Dan Hague, Rails Bookmaker Nursery · 6f 3y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-21 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ffos Las | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -19.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |