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8

Dapper Valley

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 89

Yarmouth · Boodles Handicap · 6f 3y

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Rejoined James Owen after a spell in the UAE and exploited a reduced mark with a pair of quick-fire victories at Leicester and Salisbury in April/May. After 4 months off, ran poorly for his new yard at York (5.5f) in August. Cheekpieces/tongue strap now back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chester 12/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 68 · 6f17y Goo 145 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 68 par12/095OR 684 @ Newmarket 20/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 135 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 79 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 79 par8/104OR 79C0 @ Meydan 12/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 6f Fas 117C0 @ Meydan 02/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 6f Fas 1322/01C?C0 @ Meydan 13/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 6f Fas 1314 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 77 par25/044OR 774 @ Salisbury 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 5f GF 140 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 91 · 5f89y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 91 par19/082OR 91projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19York219th18th+1
2026-05-03Salisbury41st2nd−1
2026-04-25Leicester41st2nd−1
2026-02-13Meydan?12th12th0
2026-01-02Meydan?8th8th0
2025-12-12Meydan?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0912/1225/0419/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength18%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
20/09/20257th13/266%25%-0.41
08/10/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
12/12/20258th11/142%36%-0.06
02/01/20268th22/10%46%+0.46
13/02/202612th14/126%15%-0.11
25/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
03/05/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
19/08/202619th33/10%10%+0.10