Midnight Thunder
4yo Colt · 9-13 · OR 94
Yarmouth · Boodles Handicap · 6f 3y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-01-24 | Meydan | ? | 11th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-01-10 | Meydan | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2024-10-11 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 6th | +2 |
| 2024-09-17 | Yarmouth | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2024 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 24/08/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/09/2024 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/10/2024 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 10/01/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 77% | -0.11 |
| 24/01/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |