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7

Caprelo

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 75

Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f 17y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner last term who improved from return effort when creditable fifth of 9 in handicap at Kempton in July. Seemed unsuited by such testing conditions at Goodwood (1¾m) just under 3 weeks ago and arguably more interesting on all-weather than turf these days anyway.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 28/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 71 · 1m7f218y Sta 134 · beat its mark28/05/2025 · OR 71 par28/055OR 712 @ Newcastle 28/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 71 · 2m56y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 71 par3 @ Yarmouth 24/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 75 · 1m6f17y Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 75 par24/073OR 754 @ Kempton 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 1m7f218y Sta 140 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 75 par2 @ Newmarket 11/10/2025 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR 75 · 2m2f Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 75 par11/102OR 752 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 81 · 1m7f218y Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 81 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 82 · 2m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 82 par22/053OR 824 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m7f218y Sta 136 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 80 · 1m6f Sft 135 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 80 par29/084OR 80projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Goodwood47th7th0
2026-07-08Kempton45th5th0
2026-05-22Goodwood34th3rd+1
2025-12-03Kempton22nd0th+2
2025-10-11Newmarket216th14th+2
2025-09-06Kempton41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/056/0922/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
28/06/20256th14/126%72%+0.46
24/07/20253rd16/116%75%+0.59
06/09/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
11/10/202516th33/10%17%+0.17
03/12/20252nd5/174%91%+0.17
22/05/20264th13/266%25%-0.41
08/07/20265th11/271%50%-0.21
29/08/20267th14/126%25%-0.01