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4

Moon Angel

5yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 78

Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f 17y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bookended a light 2025 campaign with victories at Salisbury and Newmarket, the latter coming over this trip last August. Only beat a sole rival on return at Ascot in May but not disgraced after a further 4 months off when seventh of 8 at Sandown (1¼m) recently. Back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 29/07/2024 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m3f23y Sta 12529/0754 @ Kempton 21/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m3f219y Sta 1285 @ Lingfield 11/09/2024 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 69 · 1m4f Std 133 · beat its mark11/09/2024 · OR 69 par11/095OR 695 @ Salisbury 15/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 68 · 1m4f5y Goo 135 · beat its mark15/06/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Chester 12/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 73 · 1m4f63y Gd 133 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 73 par12/075OR 733 @ Newmarket 02/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 74 · 1m4f GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 74 par3 @ Newmarket 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 1m6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 74 par16/083OR 744 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 79 · 1m1f212y Goo 136 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Sandown 28/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m1f209y Gd 141 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 79 par28/084OR 79projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Sandown47th7th0
2026-05-09Ascot48th8th0
2025-08-16Newmarket31st0th+1
2025-08-02Newmarket33rd2nd+1
2025-07-12Chester53rd4th−1
2025-06-15Salisbury51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0715/0616/0828/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20246th200/10%58%+0.58
21/08/20244th12/137%50%+0.13
11/09/20244th11/271%57%-0.14
15/06/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
12/07/20253rd6/594%71%-0.22
02/08/20253rd11/893%71%-0.21
16/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
09/05/20268th11/271%13%-0.59
28/08/20267th13/266%14%-0.52