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2

St Mawes

4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 79

Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f 17y

#8

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed back-to-back 2m handicaps last autumn and resumed with good placed efforts at Goodwood this spring. Changed yards prior to shaping better than result at same track (20.5f) in July and proved unable to concede best part of a stone to a couple of 3-y-os at Chester (2m) last month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 28/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m2f GF 12528/0455 @ Sandown 13/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m6f Goo 134 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Kempton 27/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 1m2f219y Sta 124 · beat its mark27/08/2025 · OR 72 par27/084OR 725 @ Kempton 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 70 · 1m7f218y Sta 134 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Nottingham 15/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 73 · 2m Goo 123 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 73 par15/104OR 734 @ Goodwood 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 2m Goo 130 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 79 · 2m Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 79 par22/053OR 792 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 81 · 2m4f137y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 80 · 1m7f196y Goo 141 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 80 par22/084OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Chester43rd3rd0
2026-07-31Goodwood26th4th+2
2026-05-22Goodwood32nd1st+1
2026-05-02Goodwood43rd3rd0
2025-10-15Nottingham41st1st0
2025-09-18Kempton51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0418/0922/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20254th10/147%63%+0.15
13/06/202510th13/266%0%-0.66
27/08/20255th18/15%20%+0.15
18/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
15/10/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
02/05/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
22/05/20262nd2/189%75%-0.14
31/07/20266th7/163%64%+0.01
22/08/20263rd9/488%75%-0.13