Emery Down
4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 65
Yarmouth · White Swan Fishermans Fortune Handicap · 7f 3y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 55% | -0.32 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |