Noble Guest
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 62
Yarmouth · White Swan Fishermans Fortune Handicap · 7f 3y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 58% | -0.05 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |