Pickering Castle
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59
Yarmouth · White Swan Fishermans Fortune Handicap · 7f 3y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 02/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 04/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 13/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 08/02/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |