Portman Blue
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 62
Yarmouth · White Swan Fishermans Fortune Handicap · 7f 3y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |