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Split Elevens

8yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 64

Yarmouth · White Swan Fishermans Fortune Handicap · 7f 3y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who has done most of his winning on the all-weather, including at Lingfield 5 weeks ago. However, he has yet to win off a mark this high so looks vulnerable back on turf.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 61 par24/105OR 615 @ Lingfield 07/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 61 · 7f1y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 60 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 60 par13/036OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 129 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f14y Std 133 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 58 par28/046OR 586 @ Wolverhampton 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 58 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 61 · 7f1y Std 131 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 61 par4/066OR 616 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f36y Std 134 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 61 · 7f1y Std 138 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 61 par13/086OR 61projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Lingfield61st1st0
2026-06-28Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-06-04Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-05-08Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-04-28Southwell64th4th0
2026-04-10Wolverhampton65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1010/044/0613/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20253rd66/10%85%+0.85
07/02/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
13/03/20264th8/158%57%-0.01
10/04/20265th9/276%64%-0.13
28/04/20264th5/174%73%-0.01
08/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
04/06/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
28/06/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
13/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18