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15

Montpellier Green

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 52

Yarmouth · LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap · 1m 3y

#15

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Struggled for form in handicaps for this yard last year, though after 7 months off he probably needed the run when well held at Chester (7f) in July. Has dropped a long way in the weights so he's worth a market check.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Doncaster 19/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 76 · 7f6y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 76 par19/073OR 764 @ Chester 26/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 74 · 5f15y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2025 · OR 74 par3 @ Ascot 09/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 73 · 1m3f211y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 73 par9/083OR 734 @ Chester 30/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 71 · 1m7f196y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 71 par4 @ Kempton 01/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m2f219y Sta 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 68 par1/104OR 684 @ Kempton 29/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 65 · 1m3f219y Sta 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m2f219y Sta 124 · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 62 par3/125OR 625 @ Wolverhampton 20/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m4f51y Std 119 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 58 par5 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 55 · 7f1y Goo 127 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 55 par10/075OR 55projClass-projected finish: 15th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Chester58th8th0
2025-12-20Wolverhampton510th10th0
2025-12-03Kempton511th11th0
2025-10-29Kempton49th8th+1
2025-10-01Kempton48th7th+1
2025-08-30Chester48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0730/083/1210/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 12-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength2%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20259th40/10%11%+0.11
26/07/20258th22/10%0%0.00
09/08/20256th33/10%29%+0.29
30/08/20258th28/10%0%0.00
01/10/20258th66/10%13%+0.13
29/10/20259th80/10%33%+0.33
03/12/202511th22/10%0%0.00
20/12/202510th40/10%0%0.00
10/07/20268th14/126%22%-0.04