5

Mountain Of Light

3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 70

Yarmouth · LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap · 1m 3y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took a step forward when second in maiden at Ffos Las (1m) last month. Wasn't able to find any further progress when again finding one too strong on handicap debut at the same course (7.5f) 20 days ago, though it still remains early days for her.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m37y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS25/0444 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS11/0644 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0845 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 70 · 7f80y Gd 130 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 70 par28/085OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Ffos Las52nd2nd0
2026-08-04Ffos Las42nd1st+1
2026-06-11Newbury48th7th+1
2026-04-25Haydock47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0411/064/0828/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

Delivery trend +16.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20267th11/142%14%-0.28
11/06/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
04/08/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70
28/08/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15