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8

New Bay Star

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 69

Yarmouth · LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap · 1m 3y

#13

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lost out narrowly in 11f maiden at Kempton in January, his final run for Charlie Johnston. However, well below that level in 2 starts for this yard, making a belated handicap debut when down the field at Southwell 17 days ago. Drops back in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 18/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f21y GS 13118/0955 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 1335 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 13027/1055 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 74 par3 @ Newcastle 09/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 74 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 74 par9/013OR 743 @ Kempton 21/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 74 · 1m2f219y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 74 · 1m4f43y Yie 155 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 74 par29/07C8OR 745 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m3f23y Std 131 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 72 par31/085OR 72projClass-projected finish: 11th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell56th6th0
2026-07-29Galway?11th15th−3
2026-01-21Kempton32nd0th+2
2026-01-09Newcastle33rd1st+2
2025-12-11Chelmsford City52nd2nd0
2025-10-27Redcar54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0911/1229/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20256th8/158%50%-0.08
09/10/20253rd10/382%78%-0.05
27/10/20254th17/255%50%-0.05
11/12/20252nd3/184%86%+0.02
09/01/20263rd5/287%33%-0.54
21/01/20262nd3/184%67%-0.18
29/07/202611th28/10%41%+0.41
31/08/20266th14/126%17%-0.10