1
Packetofbiscuits
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 70
Yarmouth · LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap · 1m 3y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 11-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.21 |
| 18/04/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |