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Tactical Plan

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66

Yarmouth · LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap · 1m 3y

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run is mounting up but took a step back in the right direction when fourth of 12 at Brighton in June. Back in cheekpieces, ran to a similar level when filling the same position in 5-runner race over this C&D 11 weeks ago. Any rain would be in his favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 75 · 7f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 75 par18/104OR 754 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 74 · 7f6y Hvy 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 74 par5 @ Redcar 04/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 73 par4/115OR 734 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR 74 · 7f6y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Leicester 13/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 73 · 7f Gd 133 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 73 par13/045OR 735 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m Sta 133 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Yarmouth 20/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 72 · 7f3y Gd 133 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 72 par20/055OR 725 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 70 · 7f216y Gd 135 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Yarmouth 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 68 · 1m3y GF 129 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 68 par2/075OR 68projClass-projected finish: 13th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Yarmouth54th4th0
2026-06-09Brighton54th4th0
2026-05-20Yarmouth510th10th0
2026-04-30Kempton58th8th0
2026-04-13Leicester54th4th0
2026-03-29Doncaster416th15th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1029/0320/052/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength7%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20258th13/266%22%-0.44
25/10/20254th9/153%79%+0.26
04/11/20252nd9/488%92%+0.04
29/03/202616th10/147%0%-0.47
13/04/20264th15/261%50%-0.11
30/04/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
20/05/202610th9/153%0%-0.53
09/06/20264th14/126%73%+0.46
02/07/20264th17/255%25%-0.30