2
Timely Affair
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68
Yarmouth · LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap · 1m 3y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 20/01/2026 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 64% | -0.31 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |