5
Heiligenstein
2yo Gelding · 9-2
Bordeaux Le Bouscat · Prix Ijockey Maiden Stakes · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -19.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 18/09/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |