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15:10 · Newton Abbot

Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle

2m 5f 122yGoing TBCClass 44YO plusTURFHandicap4 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Top Pick1
OR 115
9/4
Kom Tu Voudras silks

Mr John P McManus

Kom Tu Voudras

6yo Mare · 11-12

Martinborough - Mousse Des Bois (Ut*chef De Clan)

Harry Cobden70%3/7Faye Bramley70%
164F12
8.0Going 10.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Forward-going mare who has won 3 of 7 completed starts for current yard. Things have unfolded favourably for both handicap wins, though she ran as well as ever when 2½-length second to Skelton-trained improver over C&D latest. May give Kilnew Supreme most to think about.

Class Advantage

9/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/05 · mark par9/0511/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par28/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par28/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par18/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 122y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 83%9/05Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 17%28/06Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 80%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%28/08Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 80%18/09
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.4%Ahead 2/4
4
2
OR 105
4/1
Kittys Glance silks

Pitchall Stud Partnership

Kittys Glance

5yo Mare · 11-2

Passing Glance - Midnight Cataria (Midnight Legend)

Tom Cannon60%0/1A King60%
012322
7.0Going 10.0Class ↓3

Low-mileage 5-y-o (has bled) who won a weak mares maiden at Huntingdon in March. Has proved consistent rather than progressive in handicaps over the summer, going with more zest when 2¼-length second on first try over this trip at Stratford last time.

Class Advantage

22/12 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a22/1218/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a12/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a11/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below11/06 · mark par3/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par20/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 122y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 11 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 29%22/12Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 75%12/05Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 80%3/07Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 75%20/08
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.3%Ahead 0/4
2
Market Fav4
OR 106
7/4
Kilnew Supreme silks

Mr J Ellery

Kilnew Supreme

5yo Gelding · 11-3

Harzand - Littlemissfit (King's Theatre)

Sam Twiston-Davies80%P F Nicholls80%
2222
7.0
Tongue strap

Expensive purchase following second in a point. Filled the same position in a bumper/couple of hurdles last season, doing plenty right under a typically positive ride when 3 lengths behind a fairly useful one at Taunton in April. Sets the standard and may improve switched to a longer trip/handicap.

Class Advantage

8/11 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/1123/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a23/0322/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a22/04projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength7%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 122y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 86%8/11Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 91%23/03Pos 2 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 83%22/04
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -5.6%Ahead 0/3
3
3
OR 106
7/2
Ellerton silks

Mr J P Romans

Ellerton

6yo Gelding · 11-3

Zoustar - Meandering (Galileo)

Brendan Powell60%3/6J Tizzard
612P12
8.0Class ↓4
Tongue strap

Has already won a couple of small-field course handicaps here this season. No match for a Skelton one on a roll when unsuited by drop back in trip here (17f) last time. This test should be much more his bag, though again has a likely improver to contend with.

Class Advantage

31/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/03 · mark par31/0327/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below27/11 · mark par13/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/05 · mark par27/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below27/05 · mark par27/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par7/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 122y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%31/03Pos 6 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 6 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 29%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%13/05Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 75%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%27/08Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 67%7/09
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -4.3%Ahead 2/4