14:35 · Newton Abbot

Final Furlong Before 'I Do' Selling Handicap Hurdle

2m 167yGoing TBCClass 54YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
Market Fav3
OR 87
6/4
Berry Edge silks

Mr Dan Skelton

8yo Gelding · 10-6

Mukhadram - Amaany (Teofilo)

Harry Skelton80%0/1D Skelton80%Course spec.
953132
7.0
Tongue strap

Fair 3-time Flat winner. Decisively opened his hurdle account at Wetherby (2m, soft) in February. Matched that form on return (had a breathing operation in the interim) when 2½-length second at Worcester. Solid claims to go one better on second start for the excellent Dan Skelton yard.

Class Advantage

13/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/11 · mark par13/1124/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/11 · mark par30/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/01 · mark par26/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/02 · mark par17/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/03 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 11%13/11Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 50%30/01Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 80%17/03Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 89%10/09
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +36.6%Ahead 3/4
1
2
OR 109
3/1
Saint Polo silks

T & A Partnership

6yo Gelding · 12-0

Storm The Stars - Une Royal (Royal Dragon)

Luke Scott60%2/3J Candlish60%
371113
8.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces1st Tongue Strap +2

Successful over C&D in June prior to completing a handicap hurdle hat-trick with little to spare at Sedgefield last month. Looked a difficult ride when beaten 16½ lengths on second chase start here latest, which tempers enthusiasm for this return to hurdling.

Class Advantage

9/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/04 · mark par9/0414/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below14/05 · mark par16/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par23/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par28/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par7/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength54%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%9/04Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 14%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%16/06Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%28/08Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 50%7/09
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength55%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.8%Ahead 3/4
2
Top Pick1
OR 106
10/1
Lightning Flash silks

Mr N A Twiston-Davies

6yo Gelding · 11-11

Mount Nelson - Golden Mole (Gold Well)

Sam Twiston-Davies80%3/8N & W Twiston-Davies
14F633
6.0Going 10.0Class ↓3

Successful on latest hurdle start at Perth (2½m) this time last year. Subsequently won on chasing debut (off this mark) before completely losing his confidence over fences. Interesting reverted to hurdles on return, for yard who've had a couple of well-backed reappearance winners in recent days.

Class Advantage

25/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/09 · mark par25/0911/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/10 · mark par1/11 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/11 · mark par17/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below17/12 · mark par13/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/03 · mark par6/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/05 · mark par6/05projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength66%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%25/09Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 4 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 57%1/11Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 38%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 0%13/03Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%6/05
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -62.1%Ahead 0/4
3
4
OR 91
9/4
Cogital silks

Mr Alex James & Mr B J Llewellyn

11yo Gelding · 10-10

Invincible Spirit - Galaxy Highflyer (Galileo)

Harry Atkins60%1/2−5lbB J Llewellyn60%
574021
5.0Class ↓3Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Veteran who capitalised on a much-reduced mark when making it 2-2 over C&D in June, beating a next-time-out winner in the process. This is probably a better race, despite the fact it's a selling handicap, and he arrives following a poor run on the Flat.

Class Advantage

26/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/03 · mark par26/0310/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/04 · mark par30/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par30/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par21/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 83%26/03Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 60%30/04Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%30/06Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 22%21/08
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength85%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.6%Ahead 3/4
5
6
OR 83
20/1
Princess Of Ballea silks

Mr Mike Rowe

4yo Filly · 10-2

Pillar Coral - Kalanisi Og (Kalanisi)

Harry Reed60%0/3Daisy Hitchins
53U664
4.0Class ↓3

Modest place form in bumpers. Only showed a bit on what was effectively her hurdling debut over C&D in June (hasn't bettered that form in 2 starts since). Improvement needed to defy her opening mark.

Class Advantage

7/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a7/1030/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a12/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength59%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 78%7/10Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%12/04Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 29%3/07Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 57%25/08
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength34%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +31.5%Ahead 4/4
6
5
OR 79
25/1
Saucats silks

Bellies Syndicate

5yo Gelding · 10-2

Nirvana Du Berlais - Taneshka (Astarabad)

Callum Pritchard1/5J Tickle70%
123737
4.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Course regular who backed up his breakthrough success here (2¼m) with a handful of creditable placed efforts over the summer. Back on his winning mark following a below-par run over C&D last time and cannot be discounted if on a going day.

Class Advantage

3/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par3/0713/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par19/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/07 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par18/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%3/07Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 91%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 71%19/07Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 75%5/09Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 40%18/09
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.1%Ahead 1/4