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15:30 · Roscommon

Ballymore Group Irish EBF Kilbegnet Novice Chase (Grade 3)

2m 107yGoing TBCClass 14YO plusTURF5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
4/11
Daddy Long Legs silks

Mrs J Donnelly

Daddy Long Legs

7yo Gelding · 11-1

Almanzor - Private Eye (American Post)

Paul Townend70%4/8W P Mullins60%
292121
7.0Going 10.0Class ↓1

Smart form over hurdles, runner-up in the Irish Champion Hurdle last year. Placed in a couple of maidens on the Flat this summer, before scoring with a fair bit in hand on chasing debut in maiden at Killarney last month. The one to beat.

Class Advantage

20/02 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a20/0225/05 · C15 · finish vs mark above25/05 · mark par20/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a2/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below2/07 · mark par29/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below29/07 · mark par22/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a22/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 107y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 33%20/02Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 88%20/06Pos 2 · SP 8/13 | Expected: 97%Pos 2 · SP 8/13 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 88%29/07Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%22/08
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength94%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.9%Ahead 3/4
4
2
OR 125
8/1
Femme Magnifique silks

DQ Number Eleven Syndicate

Femme Magnifique

8yo Mare · 10-8

Champs Elysees - Taraval (Milan)

Cian Quirke60%1/9D H Kelly
731211
6.0Class ↓1

Much improved this season for new yard, winning twice in handicaps at around 2m and adding a novice success at Wexford (2½m) a month ago. Back up in grade but she can go well in her hat-trick bid.

Class Advantage

5/02 · C11 · finish vs mark below5/02 · mark par5/0228/02 · C11 · finish vs mark below28/02 · mark par29/05 · C11 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par30/06 · C11 · finish vs mark below30/06 · mark par17/07 · C11 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par28/08 · C8 · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par28/08
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲9
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 107y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 53%5/02Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%29/05Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%17/07Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%28/08
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength74%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.2%Ahead 4/4
3
3
OR 112
16/1
A Snow White Park silks

Molly & Paul Willis & Margaret Mullins

A Snow White Park

5yo Mare · 10-8

Walk In The Park - Danali (Presenting)

Danny Mullins60%2/8Ms M Mullins
4522U1
5.0

Had taken well to chasing prior to unseating at the Galway Festival, but soon got back on the up when winning handicap at Tramore (2¾m) 6 weeks ago. However, was allowed to build up a big lead last time, so faces a tougher ask here.

Class Advantage

21/03 · C10 · finish vs mark below21/03 · mark par21/0319/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below19/04 · mark par8/05 · C10 · finish vs mark below8/05 · mark par29/05 · C10 · finish vs mark below29/05 · mark par3/07 · C10 · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par16/08 · C10 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par16/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲9
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 107y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 27%21/03Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 64%8/05Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 92%3/07Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%16/08
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength57%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.9%Ahead 3/4
2
4
OR 133
5/1
Wild Bill Hickok silks

Patrick Sheanon

Wild Bill Hickok

4yo Gelding · 10-11

Walk In The Park - Royale Joana Has (Martaline)

Eoghan Finegan60%2/5Ciaran Murphy
P01316
6.0Class ↓1

Dual winning hurdler in France who won 2 of first 3 starts over fences for current yard, scoring by a wide margin in maiden at Wexford in May and novice over this C&D the following month. Failed to give his running in Grade 3 novice at Galway, but he's worth another chance.

Class Advantage

12/10 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/1010/04 · C2 · finish vs mark below10/04 · mark par7/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a16/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a8/06 · C8 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par30/07 · C1 · finish vs mark below30/07 · mark par30/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 107y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 25%12/10Pos 12 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 45%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%7/05Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%8/06Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 17%30/07
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.3%Ahead 2/4
5
5
20/1
Miss Fourie silks

Ms Aisling Molloy

Miss Fourie

9yo Mare · 10-8

Yeats - Present Venture (Presenting)

Danny Gilligan60%0/1G Elliott60%
477F64
3.0
Cheek pieces

Fairly useful hurdler for Peter Fahey but showed her quirky side in her 4 outings last year. Possibly needed the run after 11 months off when well-beaten fourth of 7 in mares maiden at Tramore (2¾m) on chasing/stable debut 6 weeks ago. Has something to find, though.

Class Advantage

22/08 · C11 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/081/11 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/11 · mark par5/07 · C12 · finish vs mark below5/07 · mark par30/07 · C12 · finish vs mark below30/07 · mark par27/09 · C12 · finish vs mark below27/09 · mark par16/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a16/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲9
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 107y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 100%22/08Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 60%5/07Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 44%27/09Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%16/08
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength37%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +35.2%Ahead 4/4