15:43 · Newton Abbot

Par Inn Bulpin Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

3m 2f 105yGoing TBCClass 54YO plusTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 83
11/8
Pooroldmackley silks

BAYTREE

7yo Gelding · 10-6

Getaway - Parkview Delight (Oscar)

Miss Eleanor Williams1/9−5lbMrs C Williams60%
PF7442
6.0

Successful over fences here last year. Back on his latest winning mark and has looked in top form recently. Again finished with running left under an overly patient ride when 2½-length second at Plumpton 8 days ago. Capable of going one better if things fall right under usual amateur rider.

Class Advantage

31/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par31/0819/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par28/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/03 · mark par6/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par10/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par20/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par20/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 2f 105y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%31/08Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 25%28/03Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 63%10/07Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 80%20/09
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.0%Ahead 3/4
6
Value2
OR 78
10/1
Bits Ballou silks

The Jukes Family

5yo Mare · 10-2

Scorpion - Bignose Kate (Overbury)

Mr Lucas Murphy60%−7lbN & W Twiston-Davies
986423
6.0

Lightly-raced mare. Best effort came when 2¼-length second of 5 (ahead of Final Entry) in a slowly-run event over C&D on handicap bow. Well below form behind French Diablo (2¾m) subsequently. Step back up in trip/stable's recent form offers hope of a bounce back following an 11-week break.

Class Advantage

19/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/0314/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par12/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/07 · mark par12/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 2f 105y · 20%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 36%19/03Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 44%14/04Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 25%10/05Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 75%12/06Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 60%12/07
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +34.7%Ahead 3/4
2
3
OR 97
7/2
Final Entry silks

Midd Shire Racing

5yo Gelding · 11-6

Galileo - Snow Queen (Danehill Dancer)

Mr James Shaw−7lbD Pipe80%
643144
7.0
1st Tongue Strap +21st Visor +2

Doubled his career/course tally when a narrow winner in first-time visor over C&D in June. Hasn't bettered that form with a couple of in-frame efforts at Worcester since and a 1-lb reprieve probably isn't enough.

Class Advantage

9/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/03 · mark par9/0322/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/04 · mark par12/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par23/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par16/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/07 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 2f 105y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%9/03Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 50%12/06Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 40%16/07Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 67%4/09
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.4%Ahead 1/4
7
4
OR 81
8/1
French Diablo silks

The French Diablo Partnership

4yo Gelding · 10-2

Buck's Boum - Cozumel Island (Martaline)

Miss Aimee Jones−7lbM Comley60%
P31P54
5.0Class ↓2
1st Cheekpieces +2

Lightly-raced 4-y-o. Hasn't progressed since his breakthrough success in a weak race at Stratford (2¾m). First-time cheekpieces added and has work to do from out of the handicap, even with yard's amateur claiming 7 lb.

Class Advantage

28/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/1117/12 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par12/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/07 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par20/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below20/09 · mark par20/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 2f 105y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 29%28/11Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 22%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 67%29/06Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 60%10/09Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 40%20/09
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.5%Ahead 2/4
5
5
OR 81
6/1
Ask Peter silks

Anthony Honeyball Racing Club

7yo Mare · 10-4

Jukebox Jury - Attima (Zafonic)

Mr William Higgs−7lbA J Honeyball
424636
4.0
Tongue strap

Hasn't kicked on since going close in a 2m handicap here in June, however, is on a reasonable mark if revitalised by this marked step up in trip (stayed well on the Flat). She looks an uncomplicated ride for her relatively inexperienced jockey, too (having only second ride under Rules).

Class Advantage

9/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/04 · mark par9/0412/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par3/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par19/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par27/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/08 · mark par18/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength56%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 2f 105y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 57%9/04Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 40%3/07Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%27/08Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 17%18/09
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.2%Ahead 2/4
3
6
OR 87
12/1
Poet's Muse silks

Mrs Sarah Rising

5yo Mare · 10-10

Poet's Word - Bandelaro (Beneficial)

Mr James King60%I Chanin
164027
4.0

Point winner. Allowed the run of things when pushing a fair sort from the Paul Nicholls yard close on handicap debut at Taunton in April. Didn't repeat that effort the following month, however, worth a second look returning in a weak handicap with leading amateur booked.

Class Advantage

29/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/0115/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/04 · mark par20/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below20/05 · mark par20/05projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 2f 105y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 50%29/01Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 67%15/03Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 10%4/04Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 86%22/04Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 14%20/05
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength7%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +21.1%Ahead 3/4
1
7
OR 105
10/1
Glitz And Glamour silks

The Lucky Few

5yo Mare · 12-0

Walk In The Park - Limerickurmylady (Gamut)

Mr Evan Lonergan−7lbN B King
839P60
2.0

Sligo maiden hurdle winner whose form went the wrong way (including over fences) for Eric McNamara in Ireland. British mark looks stiff enough, even if back on song for new handler.

Class Advantage

20/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a20/0821/09 · C11 · finish vs mark below21/09 · mark par5/10 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a19/10 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a10/07 · C10 · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par4/08 · C10 · finish vs mark below4/08 · mark par4/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 2f 105y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%20/08Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 59%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 60%5/10Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 67%10/07Pos 11 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 11 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 29%4/08
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength38%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +5.9%Ahead 1/4