4
Mijas
3yo Colt · 8-13
Bordeaux Le Bouscat · Prix De Pomerol Stakes · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 09/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |