5
Black Ultra
4yo Colt · 9-1
Bordeaux Le Bouscat · Prix D'albret Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 2 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Tarbes | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-11 | Toulouse | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/09/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 21% | +0.06 |
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 11/11/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 23/07/2026 | 15th | 15/2 | 61% | 7% | -0.54 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |