8
Varenne
4yo Gelding · 8-10
Bordeaux Le Bouscat · Prix D'albret Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Dax | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dax | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Dax | ? | 4th | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.38 |
| 27/04/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 21/05/2026 | 16th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/06/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 77% | +0.22 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |