6
Zelzala
3yo Filly · 8-5
Bordeaux Le Bouscat · Prix Jacques Dogny Claiming Stakes · 7f 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength67%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Vichy | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-15 | La Teste De Buch | 1 | 5th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -18.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |