2
Nolito
6yo Gelding · 9-6
Bordeaux Le Bouscat · Prix Dimitri Legrand Handicap · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Mont De Marsan | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.21 |
| 29/03/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |