10
Anglesey Lad
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 45
Brighton · Matchbook SignUp - Get 20% Back On Losses Handicap · 5f 60y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Southwell | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-02 | Brighton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-08 | Brighton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-29 | Brighton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 27/03/2025 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 12/04/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 29/04/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 08/05/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 02/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 10/06/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |