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9

Bated Breeze

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 47

Brighton · Matchbook SignUp - Get 20% Back On Losses Handicap · 5f 60y

#8

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally got off the mark in 6f classified event here in July. Posted a good third of 11 to Roman Spring in handicap at Windsor (5f, good to firm) 3 weeks ago. Needs considering in refitted cheekpieces.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 18/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 50 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 50 par18/096OR 506 @ Brighton 16/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 48 · 6f210y Goo 123 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 48 par6 @ Bath 30/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 48 · 5f160y Hvy 128 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 48 par30/106OR 486 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 48 · 5f215y Goo 128 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Brighton 22/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 47 · 6f210y Goo 127 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 47 par22/066OR 476 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 46 · 5f215y GF 135 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Brighton 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 49 · 5f215y Goo 129 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 49 par7/086OR 492 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 48 · 5f215y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 47 · 5f21y Goo 129 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 47 par7/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor63rd3rd0
2026-08-23Brighton213th8th+4
2026-08-07Brighton64th4th0
2026-07-07Brighton61st1st0
2026-06-22Brighton66th6th0
2026-05-29Brighton610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0929/057/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength90%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20259th5/174%27%-0.46
16/10/20253rd9/153%85%+0.32
30/10/20253rd7/282%80%-0.02
29/05/202610th17/255%25%-0.30
22/06/20266th10/147%38%-0.10
07/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
07/08/20264th10/382%50%-0.32
23/08/202613th25/10%20%+0.20
07/09/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02