2
Diamond Dreamer
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 58
Brighton · Matchbook SignUp - Get 20% Back On Losses Handicap · 5f 60y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 02/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |