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5

Harry Brown

6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 52

Brighton · Matchbook SignUp - Get 20% Back On Losses Handicap · 5f 60y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Lingfield (5f) in May and caught the eye when third at Epsom (6f) in July. Down the field at Lingfield (well backed, blew the start) and Sandown since but not without interest dropped in grade here off a handy-looking mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 55 · 6f1y Std 135 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 55 par30/046OR 555 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 52 · 4f217y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 52 par5 @ Newbury 01/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 56 · 5f34y GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 56 par1/065OR 566 @ Brighton 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 55 · 5f60y Goo 132 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 55 · 5f21y GF 133 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 55 par29/066OR 554 @ Epsom Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 57 · 6f3y GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Epsom Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 56 · 6f3y GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 56 par30/075OR 566 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 55 · 5f6y Std 135 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 55 par5 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 55 · 5f10y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 55 par16/095OR 55projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Sandown57th6th+1
2026-08-22Lingfield68th8th0
2026-07-30Epsom Downs53rd2nd+1
2026-07-09Epsom Downs45th3rd+2
2026-06-29Windsor613th13th0
2026-06-22Brighton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0422/0630/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/04/20269th7/163%11%-0.52
09/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
01/06/20264th12/137%50%+0.13
22/06/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
29/06/202613th6/168%0%-0.68
09/07/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
30/07/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
22/08/20268th15/890%0%-0.90
16/09/20267th22/10%33%+0.33