River Nile

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 74

Brighton · Matchbook Betting Exchange Supporting UK Racing Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 210y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

97%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.3

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-17	Pontefract	4	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-09-04	Kempton	3	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-08-19	Kempton	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-08-30	Sandown	2	6th	4th	+2	6.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength46%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/08/2025	6th	9/2	76%	17%	-0.60
19/08/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	75%	+0.59
04/09/2026	3rd	4/1	79%	33%	-0.46
17/09/2026	4th	11/8	93%	40%	-0.53