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13

Allaboutthelunch

2yo Gelding · 8-4 · OR 46

Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Nursery · 7f 216y

#12

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed more than previously when second of 11 in nursery at Bath (1m, good) 15 days ago. Merits consideration bidding for a first success at the seventh attempt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS25/0425 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f20y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS11/0554 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/0646 @ Kempton 10/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 45 · 1m Sta 117 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 45 par10/086OR 456 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m1y Std 115 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 45 par27/086OR 456 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 45 · 1m Gd 115 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 45 par13/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath62nd2nd0
2026-08-27Lingfield68th8th0
2026-08-10Kempton65th5th0
2026-06-08Leicester49th7th+2
2026-05-11Wolverhampton59th8th+1
2026-04-25Leicester212th7th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0411/058/0610/0827/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +15.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/202612th40/10%0%0.00
11/05/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
08/06/20269th40/10%0%0.00
10/08/20265th22/10%50%+0.50
27/08/20268th28/10%30%+0.30
13/09/20262nd25/10%90%+0.90