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7

Beach Ahead

2yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 60

Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Nursery · 7f 216y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Failed to build on a promising nursery sixth at Kempton (6f) when occupying same position in 7f nursery there later in August. Worth another chance now tried with a visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS23/0553 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 5f Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS7/0636 @ Kempton 05/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 65 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 65 par5/086OR 656 @ Kempton 19/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 63 · 7f Sta 133 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 63 par19/086OR 63projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Kempton66th6th0
2026-08-05Kempton66th6th0
2026-06-07Goodwood34th0th+3
2026-05-23Windsor54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/057/065/0819/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20264th33/10%73%+0.73
07/06/20264th17/255%25%-0.30
05/08/20266th40/10%44%+0.44
19/08/20266th25/10%58%+0.58