2
Mandolin Rain
2yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 65
Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Nursery · 7f 216y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength89%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Yarmouth | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 3 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nottingham | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -57.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 15/09/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |